Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator rebounded by 1.37 percent in August, reversing a decline seen in July.
“The increase represents a strong upward bounce,” said UNL economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research. “Taking the two months together, results suggest that Nebraska should experience solid economic growth during the first few months of 2015.”
The improved outlook resulted from a sharp drop in first-time unemployment claims, combined with a solid increase in home building permits and positive business expectations reported in the monthly survey of Nebraska business.
A composite of six components that predict economic growth six months into the future, the indicator has shown positive results for five of the past six months.
Airline passenger counts, manufacturing hours and the value of the dollar are factored into the indicator, along with single-family building permits, unemployment claims and business expectations.
Thompson sounded a cautionary note about the value of the U.S. dollar, which increased during August. That will create a “more challenging environment” for Nebraska exporters, he said.
Airline passenger counts and manufacturing hours both declined slightly in August.
The indicator is produced by faculty and students in the Department of Economics and the Bureau of Business Research in UNL’s College of Business Administration. The full Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators report and a Technical Report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website, http://www.bbr.unl.edu.
