Economic indicator shows loss of momentum in late 2016

· 2 min read

Economic indicator shows loss of momentum in late 2016

UNL students check out T-shirts available in a UNL convenience store. During March, businesses in Nebraska grew more optimistic about the outlook for sales.
Craig Chandler | University Communications

After strong growth in the summer and fall, the Nebraska economy may cool in late 2016, according to the latest leading economic indicator report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The indicator, a composite of economic factors that predict growth six months into the future, decreased by 0.28 percent in May.

“Nebraska’s leading indicator dropped during May due to a decrease in manufacturing hours and an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research at UNL. “There also was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar, which is negative for export-oriented businesses in the state.”

May’s decline, however, followed two sharp increases in the leading indicator during March and April, Thompson noted. Taken together, results for the last three months suggest strong growth in the Nebraska economy during the summer and fall of 2016, but that growth may cool toward the end of the year.

There were some positive components of the leading indicator during May. In particular, there was a modest increase in building permits for single-family homes, and strong business expectations. Respondents to the May Survey of Nebraska Business predicted strong growth in both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months.

The leading economic indicator report is produced monthly by faculty and students in the economics department and the Bureau of Business Research in UNL’s College of Business Administration.

The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available here.

Eric Thompson (second from right), associate professor of economics, works with student research assistants in the College of Business Administration’s Bureau of Business Research. The bureau is designed to assist with Nebraska’s economic development efforts.
Craig Chandler | University Communication
Eric Thompson (second from right), associate professor of economics, works with student research assistants in the College of Business Administration’s Bureau of Business Research. The bureau is designed to assist with Nebraska’s economic development efforts.
UNL Bureau of Business Research Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska – June 2016
Eric Thompson discusses May leading economic indicator report

Recent News