Nebraska’s leading economic indicator shows ongoing decline

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Nebraska’s leading economic indicator shows ongoing decline

Economic growth expected to stagnate in first half of year
Man in shirt and tie carries cardboard box full of work belongings

Nebraska’s leading economic indicator fell again in November, according to the most recent report from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. The indicator, designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, dropped 0.16%.

“The leading indicator has dropped in four of the past six months, suggesting that there will be no growth in the Nebraska economy in the first half of 2023,” said economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research, department chair and K.H. Nelson Professor of Economics.

The six components of the indicator are business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the value of the U.S. dollar and manufacturing hours worked.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose in November.

“Increasing claims for unemployment insurance indicate that the Nebraska labor market is softening,” Thompson said.

Manufacturing hours worked also dropped.

“Manufacturing is a cyclical industry, with declines spilling over to other sectors of the economy,” Thompson said.

Read the full report and a technical report describing the indicators.

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