Economic growth will slow in Nebraska in late 2018 and early 2019, according to the most recent leading economic indicator report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The indicator, a composite of factors that predict economic growth six months into the future, was flat during July, rising by 0.05 percent.

“Economic growth is strong in Nebraska at the moment,” said Eric Thompson, an economist and director of the Bureau of Business Research at the university. “But the flat leading indicator suggests that economic growth will slow significantly in late 2018 and early 2019.”

Positive business expectations, rising manufacturing activity and an increase in airline passenger counts all suggest continued economic growth, Thompson said. But other factors suggest economic growth will slow. The number of Nebraskans making an initial claim for unemployment insurance rose during July, while building permits for single-family homes fell.

In addition, for the sixth consecutive month, there was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar.

“A rising U.S. dollar creates competitive challenges for Nebraska businesses that export,” Thompson said.

The leading economic indicator report is produced monthly by faculty and students in the Bureau of Business Research in Nebraska’s College of Business.

Read the full report and a technical report describing the indicators.