State's leading indicator drops for first time in 2017

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State’s leading indicator drops for first time in 2017

Nebraska's leading economic indicator showed a decrease in building permits for single-family homes in April.
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The state's leading economic indicator showed a decrease in building permits for single-family homes in April.

Economic growth may slow in Nebraska in late 2017, according to the most recent leading economic indicator report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The indicator, a composite of economic factors that predict economic growth six months into the future, fell by 0.88 percent in April after rising rapidly in January, February and March.

“The decline in the indicator implies that Nebraska may lose economic momentum during the fourth quarter of 2017,” said economist Eric Thompson, director of the university’s Bureau of Business Research.

Four components of the indicator worsened during April. There was a decline in manufacturing hours, airline passengers and building permits for single-family homes. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also rose during April, indicating a softening of the labor market.

“These declining components stood in contrast to business expectations, which remained strong,” Thompson said.

Respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business were very optimistic about increasing sales and employment over the next six months.

The leading economic indicator report is produced monthly by faculty and students in the Bureau of Business Research in Nebraska’s College of Business.

The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website here.

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